Previously I wrote about using the concept of Panarchy to analyze complex problems. This concept can assist Project Managers dealing with today's complexities. If you haven't read the previous post, I suggest you catch up on that one, before proceeding. But of course, it's up to you.

Photography by Tinken.

For a long time, firefighters used the wrong strategy to attack forest fires. The approach taken was to extinguish the fire as soon as possible, as small as possible. If a small tree is on fire, put it out immediately. By solving the problem at the "individual tree level" you didn't have the issue on a larger scale, "the forest level".
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For me, THE most influential book of the first half of 2008 is definitely "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Craig Janet reminded my with his post yesterday of this book, and the fact that it was due time to give it also some blog time on Project Shrink.

Photography by JL2003.

When you have seen only white swans in your life, you think "all swans are white". But it might be that you haven't seen every swan on the planet yet, and that a black swan exists, but only that it is very rare. Taleb defines a "Black Swan" as an highly unlikely event, but with an enormous impact when it occurs.
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In Paris I tried to order some croissants in a bakery. I spoke slowly "six croissaints", pointing to the crummy broad. The woman behind the counter looked at me like I was insane. After 7 times repeating this act, she responded "Ah… croissants!"

Photography by LongHornDave.

I went to a customer a couple of years ago and I tried to explain him the steps to be taken to install his new system. The guy worked for over 30 years in this industrial company, and had worked his way up from bottom to the top. I rolled out my A3 Gantt chart. He looked at the sheet, tore it apart, took a small piece of paper and a pen, asking me: "what do you want me to do?"
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Reality is difficult to analyze. Project Managers still have to eliminate root-causes to major problems though. How to analyze today's complexity? I found something worthwhile exploring: Panarchy. Its origin is in ecosystem management, where it is used for assessment on how ecosystems, social systems and economic systems are interacting. How complex do you want to go?

Photography by Tscherno.

"Panarchy is a conceptual framework to account for the dual, and seemingly contradictory, characteristics of all complex systems – stability and change. It is the study of how economic growth and human development depend on ecosystems and institutions, and how they interact." (from SustainableScale.org)

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This week Project Shrink is a year old. Yah! During this year (and actually in the 5 years before) I am obsessed with this Project Management riddle:

Photography by kk+.

• There is a large bucket of Project Management methods and techniques
• We face a world of infinite complexity
• A Project Manager only has one pair of eyes, one pair of ears, one large mouth and a small brain.
• How are you going to pull the right rabbit out of the bucket to take on the project world?

My answer so far:

• By having fabulous eyes and ears.
• By reducing the size of your mouth.
• By utilizing the full capacity of your brain.

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My monthly column at TechTarget.com is up: "Software project managers should allow for experimentation" (original title: We Have No Clue. So What To Do?).

Photography by Ctd 2005.

"The solution is so simple. But somehow, "experimenting" lost its appeal. Management (with a capital "M") doesn't allow uncertainties. The whole quality hype didn't help us either, with its "zero defects" and "doing it right the first time" crap. It just means we should think before we do something. It doesn't mean we should kill everyone that needs a second attempt! Heck, even Frederick Brooks wrote in his classic The Mythical Man Month "the management question, therefore, is not whether to build a pilot system and throw it away. You will do that." His advice? Plan to throw one away."

Read the entire article.